Now we both know that the possibilities of biological measurements depend on the potential of physics - which has not yet made the leap promised by Theranos. The problem lies in the stupidity of potential buyers. Which we've seen before, when God knows what consequences were hoped for from the human genome. The same now with mRNS technology (my nephew is responsible for Pfizer's marketing in Europe, has dollar signs in his eyes, but only a dropped-out business degree). He is about to stand trial or will be the next victim of fraud (i.e. will stand trial a little later)
Not, strictly speaking, physics—engineering. The physics of microfluidics are extremely complex, but they are not the bottleneck here, I don't think. Miniaturization and signal-to-noise ratio were the two biggest problems with Theranos, and that's true; they didn't solve either. But both are solvable problems, given time and resources.
(can you DM me a link? or not, only if you're comfortable. to the article, I explained. Really interesting. Btw stories about messiahs can be very interesting too, -remember "The Books of Jacob"? Nothing good ot course, but not dull for sure. I still can't get over it. it's by Olga Tokarczuk)
Also. it's really funny about mercury)) Ah. The jolly version of the song for you:
1. you want to be too clever. What we know about the chemical constituents of tissues, we have always known according to the subtleties of physical measurement methods (10^-2, 10^-3 etc, currently 10^-15), Therano has promised 10^-20 and that immediately. This does not currently exist and a CEO should know this. All CEOs do not know that.
2. 15 years ago I had to give a lecture on serotonin to other doctors in Leverkusen - who believed that serotonin was the center of transmitter chemistry. I explained to them that they were only being deceived by the industry. Serotonin is only easiest to determine in the laboratory, so most papers have been written about it and most drugs have been developed. 50% big shouting and 50% big applause.
To be honest, I don't remember them claiming 10^-20 (which is indeed impossible outside of electron microscopy and some very fancy X-ray spectroscopy). What I do remember is them claiming hundreds of tests on the parts-per-billion level, which is 10^-12. Exceptionally hard, but probably not impossible with enough development time (decades), especially given the money and talent they had.
right, she didn't claim that 'cause she didn't know anything about the technics herself. She sold sci-fi. But when U want to sell a laboratory device for free use with the immediate analysis of 30-50 parameters from 1 ml of blood, then your scientific lead time must be a few dimensions higher. Second: You are constantly confusing the physical measures of size with dilution (she wanted to determine dissolved quantities of substances in blood, which are also determined in tens of dimensions). So from the beginning: dimension of electrolytes, dimension of blood sugar, dimension of transmitters, dimension of drugs, dimension of toxins (not their physical molecular sizes)
One learned to determine K, Na, Fe etc. in the blood when physics was ready to make substances visible in the blood with a dilution of 10^-3. Blood sugar (in my memory) 10°-5 etc. Transmitters (in the 1930s 10^-9. They were invisible to us until then. Just like the spectral lines, for example. Physics first had to learn to grind the lenses. Clear now?
I don't think I am confusing these two things. And as far as I remember, concentrations of ppt (10^-12) is something that's possible to detect with state-of-the-art GS, HPLC, and MS devices. For many tests, what you actually need is ppb detection, which opens a few more options.
I completely agree with the time argument - such a machine was probably a decade or more away from being built.
“Torsion fields were attributed various miraculous effects, but in reality, only one was found—just talking about them had the ability to attract money.” The most hilarious bit. But I must admit the first story had me thinking I might run out and get me some mercury intoxication. 🤪
I once got pure mercury in a reaction as a side product and - naturally - broke the flask and spilled it. Unpleasant moments of my life, running after little toxic evaporating balls.
Yeah, I understand the complexity. But if you read Carreyrou's book (Bad Blood), he provides several interviews with process engineers and technicians of Theranos. And most of them say more or less the same thing: what was promised was impossible in the timeframe that she put. But many of the things that were promised were achievable, given the correct time and resource allocation. Which brings the conclusion: not a physical impossibility but an engineering challenge.
agree and in the future it will come. My favorite example was Navalny at the Charité: After 14 days of enrichment, cholinesterase inhibitors could be detected (at the actual environmental pollution in everyone) and the quick procedure was kept secret - and Putin was too stupid to laugh at Merkel
I absolutely love Kursschildgen! He defrauded Himmler! How does that not make him a hero? And Petric. 1 percent of all money printed! (That was Petric, no?) I have an unnatural admiration for these guys. Von Daeniken was a media hero of my youth -- everyone knew he was full of shut but the man had guts! And he’s right about science as a belief-- very few people know that the earth is a globe out of experience or because they saw proof, we all believe it because we learn it. So much of society is based on belief -- money has value because we believe if does. Between the persistent gullibility of human beings on the one hand and the uncertainty of reality on the other, we enjoy a far greater freedom in life than we know. Thanks for this I am looking forward to reading part 3!
Now we both know that the possibilities of biological measurements depend on the potential of physics - which has not yet made the leap promised by Theranos. The problem lies in the stupidity of potential buyers. Which we've seen before, when God knows what consequences were hoped for from the human genome. The same now with mRNS technology (my nephew is responsible for Pfizer's marketing in Europe, has dollar signs in his eyes, but only a dropped-out business degree). He is about to stand trial or will be the next victim of fraud (i.e. will stand trial a little later)
Not, strictly speaking, physics—engineering. The physics of microfluidics are extremely complex, but they are not the bottleneck here, I don't think. Miniaturization and signal-to-noise ratio were the two biggest problems with Theranos, and that's true; they didn't solve either. But both are solvable problems, given time and resources.
What a fascinating read, thank you, Konstantin!
(can you DM me a link? or not, only if you're comfortable. to the article, I explained. Really interesting. Btw stories about messiahs can be very interesting too, -remember "The Books of Jacob"? Nothing good ot course, but not dull for sure. I still can't get over it. it's by Olga Tokarczuk)
Also. it's really funny about mercury)) Ah. The jolly version of the song for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iiJMgUlIR8&ab_channel=BarbaricGoose
I'll restack it without my musings
PS the first quote reminds me of Jeremiah character in "Alias Grace"
Haven't read yet! But yeah, charlatans are usually rich in character and easily snatchable by smart writers :)
I highly recommend it, even though it's 900 pages. Spans over many years and three empires as well
Yeah, I might, heard many good things about it.
Thanks! Sure, will do.
One of my favorite versions of this song (in one of my favorite TV shows):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umWu96AZcAU
cool!
1. you want to be too clever. What we know about the chemical constituents of tissues, we have always known according to the subtleties of physical measurement methods (10^-2, 10^-3 etc, currently 10^-15), Therano has promised 10^-20 and that immediately. This does not currently exist and a CEO should know this. All CEOs do not know that.
2. 15 years ago I had to give a lecture on serotonin to other doctors in Leverkusen - who believed that serotonin was the center of transmitter chemistry. I explained to them that they were only being deceived by the industry. Serotonin is only easiest to determine in the laboratory, so most papers have been written about it and most drugs have been developed. 50% big shouting and 50% big applause.
To be honest, I don't remember them claiming 10^-20 (which is indeed impossible outside of electron microscopy and some very fancy X-ray spectroscopy). What I do remember is them claiming hundreds of tests on the parts-per-billion level, which is 10^-12. Exceptionally hard, but probably not impossible with enough development time (decades), especially given the money and talent they had.
A dog's nose is sometimes measured to be 10^-12, by the way: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8388720/
right, she didn't claim that 'cause she didn't know anything about the technics herself. She sold sci-fi. But when U want to sell a laboratory device for free use with the immediate analysis of 30-50 parameters from 1 ml of blood, then your scientific lead time must be a few dimensions higher. Second: You are constantly confusing the physical measures of size with dilution (she wanted to determine dissolved quantities of substances in blood, which are also determined in tens of dimensions). So from the beginning: dimension of electrolytes, dimension of blood sugar, dimension of transmitters, dimension of drugs, dimension of toxins (not their physical molecular sizes)
There are no sieves with defined sieve sizes in the laboratory... hello?
One learned to determine K, Na, Fe etc. in the blood when physics was ready to make substances visible in the blood with a dilution of 10^-3. Blood sugar (in my memory) 10°-5 etc. Transmitters (in the 1930s 10^-9. They were invisible to us until then. Just like the spectral lines, for example. Physics first had to learn to grind the lenses. Clear now?
I don't think I am confusing these two things. And as far as I remember, concentrations of ppt (10^-12) is something that's possible to detect with state-of-the-art GS, HPLC, and MS devices. For many tests, what you actually need is ppb detection, which opens a few more options.
I completely agree with the time argument - such a machine was probably a decade or more away from being built.
But that's not she wanted to sell 😚
This was a fun and instructive read.
“Torsion fields were attributed various miraculous effects, but in reality, only one was found—just talking about them had the ability to attract money.” The most hilarious bit. But I must admit the first story had me thinking I might run out and get me some mercury intoxication. 🤪
Thanks!
I once got pure mercury in a reaction as a side product and - naturally - broke the flask and spilled it. Unpleasant moments of my life, running after little toxic evaporating balls.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-was-the-m2vwwf2uRtKufhoTALmrLQ
It says "Cannot view this thread".
https://youtu.be/zoj1tk1xetQ?si=3a7q_Mstf6D--7uT
Yeah, I understand the complexity. But if you read Carreyrou's book (Bad Blood), he provides several interviews with process engineers and technicians of Theranos. And most of them say more or less the same thing: what was promised was impossible in the timeframe that she put. But many of the things that were promised were achievable, given the correct time and resource allocation. Which brings the conclusion: not a physical impossibility but an engineering challenge.
agree and in the future it will come. My favorite example was Navalny at the Charité: After 14 days of enrichment, cholinesterase inhibitors could be detected (at the actual environmental pollution in everyone) and the quick procedure was kept secret - and Putin was too stupid to laugh at Merkel
b.t.w: lived in Plänterwald and walked the dog till Ostkreuz - nothing enigmatic in the tower there :-)))
But it looks cool and impressive! I still pass it every day in S-Bahn.
I absolutely love Kursschildgen! He defrauded Himmler! How does that not make him a hero? And Petric. 1 percent of all money printed! (That was Petric, no?) I have an unnatural admiration for these guys. Von Daeniken was a media hero of my youth -- everyone knew he was full of shut but the man had guts! And he’s right about science as a belief-- very few people know that the earth is a globe out of experience or because they saw proof, we all believe it because we learn it. So much of society is based on belief -- money has value because we believe if does. Between the persistent gullibility of human beings on the one hand and the uncertainty of reality on the other, we enjoy a far greater freedom in life than we know. Thanks for this I am looking forward to reading part 3!
Thanks for that! I do admire them in a sense as well. They certainly has talent, they just applied it for the wrong things.