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Dan's avatar

> Keep in mind that the statement “candidate X will win with the probability of 60%” is also completely unfalsifiable in this case: there is no course of events that can prove it wrong.

Forecasters use the Brier score to translate these to a quantifiable track record of how well a model/a person predicts election outcomes. In this case 60% would be the confidence of the model.

If there is a systematic predictor (ie algorithm), the hypothesis is that the model can predict outcomes with a certain precision and therefore with multiple elections it could be falsifiable.

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver is an excellent book on this.

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Chen Rafaeli's avatar

That's why I'm so often right, if not to say "almost always" lol

but no, really, -Thank you, that was a delightful read

(not sure about "de-facto leader, but okay. Let's assume))

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